The Blue-Gray Sky

a Notre Dame scrapbook

Friday, December 10, 2004

Coaches, coaches, everywhere | by Jay

Last night Fr. Jenkins, Kevin White, and former player (and current ND benefactor) Jim Morse talked to Tom Clements in Buffalo, and the South Bend Trib has it that they'll talk to him again today. No word on what was discussed. Maybe they chatted about the weather, or what the current hotspots on Chippewa Street are. I wonder if the open coaching job came up.

Meanwhile, ND is about to interview Charlie Weis, and it could be as soon as today or Saturday. They've asked for and been granted permission by the Patriots to contact Weis, who's reportedly expressed interest in the job.

But the big story yesterday involved Denver Broncos coach Mike Shanahan. A report on Fox Sports television out of Denver claimed that Shanahan had been offered the ND job, and was "likely to take it." The money was rumored to be around $3.5 million per year for 5 years. The report never appeared in print or on the web, so only the folks watching the report live got to hear it firsthand.

BGS (like many others) heard this story a couple of days ago and was sitting on it, but if you perused any of the ND message boards yesterday morning, you knew that something was up and the story had been leaked. Subtle hints were being dropped and scrutiny was focused on this article from Wednesday, in which Shanahan hemmed and hawed about his future with the Broncos:

With his popularity never lower and second-guessing of his strategy seldom higher, Shanahan must now contemplate what was unthinkable when his team was winning Super Bowls.

If the decision were left to Shanahan, would he definitely want to coach the Broncos again next year?

"What I'd like to do," said Shanahan, deftly sidestepping the inquiry, "is really talk about the Dolphins."

There is an NFL coaching vacancy in Miami, but somehow I don't think Shanahan was seeking a Florida address to mail his résumé and references.

The reeling Broncos have a home game Sunday against the Dolphins.

Where Shanahan will be coaching in 2005 is a topic he would most definitely like to avoid.

So, on Wednesday, he's zigzagging to avoid questions about his future. But then Fox Sports went public with their Shanahan-to-ND story, and the Shanahan camp scrambled to put together a statement. Here's what they came up with, late last night:
"As I said all along, I have four years remaining on my contract, and I intend to honor it," Shanahan said through a team spokesman Thursday night.
That's it. No mention of Notre Dame. No mention of being contacted; no mention of not being contacted. No mention of being offered the job. No mention of any contract details. Nada. Zilch. For all it seemed, this could have been a response to ongoing speculation that Shanny was going to simply hang it up in Denver at the end of this season anyway, not a direct refutation of an actual job offer from the Irish. (Of course, that didn't prevent headline writers from recycling another "Irish spurned by X" jab.)

Compare and contrast with what Jim Fassel had to say about a similar thanks-but-no-thanks earlier this week:
“I have no plans to pursue or accept a college job this year...I want to end some of the speculation regarding my coaching future...It’s flattering to have my name associated with elite and very special collegiate programs. However, my intention is to return to the NFL as a head coach next season. My passion is to help a franchise go to and win the Super Bowl."
Seems pretty clear. Even Mooch spelled it out that the Irish had called him, and he had declined to talk about the job.

So what's going on? For one thing, maybe there really wasn't anything substantial between ND and Shanahan. This seems highly unlikely, however: Shanahan's been a longtime fan of the Irish, having grown up Irish Catholic in Franklin Park, Ill. (a Chicago 'burb) and all that. Back in the Great Search Fiasco of '01, Shanny was consistently reported to be talking with ND about the job, and even the details of the proposed contract (10 years, $30 million) leaked to the press.

So, taking account of Shanahan's purported fondness for Notre Dame, and knowing that ND was talking to other NFL coaches as well, I think it's safe to assume there was at least some gauging of interest between the two parties. That said, at this point it's tough to say if actual numbers were agreed upon, and whether an official contract was offered. We've heard that there was an offer on the table, and that Shanahan was mulling it over when the news broke yesterday. But who knows...sources, even good ones, have been all wet before, and we know from painful experience that a deal is never done until you sign on the line that is dotted.

(A poster over on UHND had an interesting take on the situation, saying that the Shanahan statement is posturing over buyout money with Pat Bowlen, the Broncos owner. Seems as plausible as any number of other scenarios, I suppose.)

It's my hope that Mike is still thinking about it, and that his statement last night was just an effort to quell rampant speculation in the middle of the Broncos' playoff run (they're 7-5, just on the bubble). He certainly seemed to leave the door open, albeit a crack.


Posted by Jay at 4:20 AM  

9 comments:

  1. Jay10:32 AM

    One new tidbit: unbeknownst to anyone, apparently Weis already talked to ND once earlier this week.

    I guess this is a good reminder that what we see happening and what's actually happening are two different things. If I were Karl from NDNation I would now embark on a brilliant monologue on the nature of perception vs. reality and the fallibility of human understanding.

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  2. Kevin10:33 AM

    Excellent work Jay. I don't trust Wolijytarians like Karl any farther than I can throw them

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  3. Dylan10:53 AM

    I see two possibilities here, with a 25% to 75% split in terms of their probability.

    The 25%er is that Shanahan's nondenial denial is his attempt to throw a blanket over an ongoing negotiation in an effort to avoid distracting his team, even as they try to march out of the playoffs. Let's hope he pulls it off.

    The 75%er is that this is the 2004 replay of the 2001 Gruden ultimatum, just less vicious. I'm guessing that Shanahan is trying to placate his owner (who certainly doesn't want, or won't let, Shanahan to leave until after the season) and work the Notre Dame angle. This won't work. With the news out there (not to mention a $20 million fallback position), I don't see any way Shanahan can keep this going for another four weeks. If I were betting, I'd say you're going to see Shanahan backing away from this story and removing himself altogether this weekend. I hope I'm wrong, but I'm trying to look a couple of moves ahead, and I see a board that is unfavorable to ND.

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  4. John Burzynski10:55 AM

    I am thinking in general terms here:
    Why would Shanahan, a well respected NFL coach who already 'at home' in Denver, and who could land almost any NFL job he desies, take a job at ND?

    There has to be more there than : Shanahan's been a longtime fan of the Irish, having grown up Irish Catholic in Franklin Park, Ill. (a Chicago 'burb) and all that. A love of the Irish just wouldn't cause someone to leave the success and prestige of the NFL, period, money and everything else aside.

    The NFL is still the pinnacle of coachign for most coaches...and for a coach as succesful as shanahan, ND would be a step down. He has everything to lose career wise and nothing to gain by coming to ND.

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  5. Kevin11:00 AM

    Dylan, I think the 75% came to fruition, given Shanahan's denial of contact on the radio this AM.

    Onward and upward.

    by the way, great blog gentlemen

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  6. Jay11:03 AM

    Two reasons as I see it, John. First of all, there's really no way he would leave Denver to coach another NFL team, and that's strictly out of respect to Pat Bowlen, to whom he has immense loyalty. Secondly, if you read the Denver press and talk to Broncos fans, Shanahan seems to be exhibiting signs of burnout after 10 years in the NFL. Bill Walsh famously said that the NFL is a 10-year job, and then you have to move on. Even if he doesn't take the Irish job, I can't see him staying in Denver for much longer. So a college job might be a nice change of pace for the guy.

    That said, I'd agree with my colleague above and say that chances of landing him are somewhere below 50%.

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  7. D11:36 AM

    Dylan,

    Regarding your more likely scenario (the 75%er as it were), one thing I think you overlook is the respect and friendship that Bolen and Shanahan have, as contrasted with the relationship of Gruden and Davis, which was entirely advesarial.

    I'm not saying that you are not correct, only that if Shanahan wants out, Bolen might actually help us.

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  8. Anonymous11:40 AM

    If Shanahan is worried about burnout as an NFL coach...what does he think will happen at ND????

    The ND job ages a person, to the point of exhaustion. Ten years is about the max a person can handle.

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  9. Dylan11:58 AM

    D, I don't disagree. Maybe I should have been clearer expressing what I mean by "less vicious." There is a business decision for Bowlen to make regarding his team, which is teetering on making the playoffs. If he allows Shanahan to leave in the next two weeks, he stands to take a huge hit financially if the team packs it in. I think that the relationship cuts both ways. Shanahan wouldn't want Bowlen to have to take that hit. Where as the obstacle before was the Gruden/Davis rancor, this time it could be Shanahan/Bowlen friendship.

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