Fiesta Forecasting | by Jay
Here's a cursory Fiesta Bowl pick based on average points scored and given up by both teams.
First off, the raw data:
| Ohio State's Schedule | Scored vs OSU | Usually Scored | Diff. | Gave up vs OSU | Usually gave up | Diff. |
| Miami (Ohio) | 14 | 33.73 | -19.73 | 34 | 23.45 | +10.55 |
| Texas | 25 | 50.92 | -25.92 | 22 | 14.58 | +7.42 |
| San Diego State | 6 | 26.92 | -20.92 | 27 | 27.08 | -0.08 |
| Iowa | 6 | 30.55 | -24.55 | 31 | 19.00 | +12.00 |
| Penn State | 17 | 35.18 | -18.18 | 10 | 16.45 | -6.45 |
| Michigan State | 24 | 33.82 | -9.82 | 35 | 28.73 | +6.27 |
| Indiana | 10 | 22.52 | -12.52 | 41 | 32.82 | +8.18 |
| Minnesota | 31 | 36.18 | -5.18 | 45 | 28.55 | +16.45 |
| Illinois | 2 | 17.00 | -15.00 | 40 | 39.55 | +0.45 |
| Northwestern | 7 | 31.82 | -24.82 | 48 | 32.45 | +15.55 |
| Michigan | 21 | 28.82 | -7.82 | 25 | 19.27 | +5.73 |
| OSU averages | 14.82 | -16.77 | 32.55 | +6.92 |
| Notre Dame's Schedule | Scored vs ND | Usually Scored | Diff. | Gave up vs ND | Usually gave up | Diff. |
| Pittsburgh | 21 | 24.27 | -3.27 | 42 | 22.09 | +19.91 |
| Michigan | 10 | 28.82 | -18.82 | 17 | 19.27 | -2.27 |
| Michigan State | 38 | 33.82 | +4.18 | 38 | 28.73 | +9.27 |
| Washington | 17 | 21.55 | -4.55 | 36 | 30.64 | +5.36 |
| Purdue | 28 | 30.00 | -2.00 | 49 | 28.09 | +20.91 |
| Southern Cal | 34 | 50.00 | -16.00 | 31 | 21.33 | +9.67 |
| BYU | 23 | 33.45 | -10.45 | 49 | 28.73 | +20.27 |
| Tennessee | 21 | 18.64 | +2.36 | 41 | 18.64 | +22.36 |
| Navy | 21 | 32.64 | -11.64 | 42 | 25.73 | +16.27 |
| Syracuse | 10 | 13.82 | -3.82 | 34 | 26.82 | +7.18 |
| Stanford | 31 | 24.45 | +6.55 | 38 | 30.64 | +7.36 |
| ND averages | 23.09 | -5.22 | 37.91 | +12.39 |
The "averages" lines shows each team's strength adjusted by its schedule, i.e., Ohio State is -16.77 points better on defense than what its opponents usually score, and +6.92 points better on offense than what its opponents usually give up. ND is -5.22 points better on defense, and +12.39 points better on offense.
Let's apply those adjustments to the point per game (ppg) totals that the Irish and the Buckeyes usually put up. Offensively...
| OSU offense ppg | ND def adj | OSU Offense | |
| 32.55 | -5.22 | = | 27.33 |
| ND offense ppg | OSU def adj | ND Offense | |
| 37.91 | -16.77 | = | 21.14 |
And for the defenses...
| ND defense ppg | OSU off adj | ND Defense | |
| 23.09 | +6.92 | = | 30.01 |
| OSU defense ppg | ND off adj | OSU Defense | |
| 14.82 | +12.39 | = | 27.21 |
Finally, let's average ND's offensive adjusted score with OSU's defensive adjusted score (and vice versa) to get a score prediction for the game:
| OSU Offense | ND Defense | OSU Score | |||
| ( 27.33 | + | 30.01 ) | / 2 | = | 28.67 |
| ND Offense | OSU Defense | ND Score | |||
| ( 21.14 | + | 27.21 ) | / 2 | = | 24.18 |
So, that give us a (rough) final score of Ohio State 29, Notre Dame 24. Oddsmakers, by the way, have Ohio State a 4.5 favorite right now.
