Computer Love | by Jeff

If you haven't looked at the BCS numbers yet, be ready for an ugly picture. In short: the computers hate ND. Despite being ranked #9 in the AP (which is no longer in the BCS) and 11th and 12th in the Harris and USA Today polls, the computers think the Irish are the 25th best team in the country -- behind such powerhouses as Texas Christian (not Texas Tech, mind you) and West Virginia.

A good argument can be made that ND is stronger than plenty of other teams which have better computer rankings: Minnesota, Florida, Nebraska, Oregon, and Boston College, to name a few.

But, I believe these things have a way of working themselves out as the season progresses. And, if it's any consolation, Sagarin's real ratings (which he defines as the "best single predictor of future games") have us at #4, and only two one-hundredth's of a point worse than Virginia Tech, essentially meaning we'd be a push on a neutral field.

Margin of Victory | by Jeff

Despite a couple of close losses, this season's improvement over last year has been dramatic and measurable. For the second year in a row, ND has started 4-2, but looking solely at record is a poor metric for evaluating a team's improvement. For instance, the Irish were 3-3 against the same six opponents last year. Perhaps the best indicator of improvement by a squad is not a change in record, but rather in margin of victory (MOV).

Historically, the improvements created by Coach Weis are substantial. Only three other Irish coaches have improved a team's margin of victory against common opponents in their first year. Weis joins this list at #2 behind Ara's +24.9 point improvement per game and ahead of Lou (+7.1) and Elmer Layden (+13.1). In all cases, the coaches and teams they replaced were sub-par by ND standards: Hunk Anderson's 1933 squad which went 3-5-1, Hugh Devore's '64 team which went 2-7, Gerry Faust's 5-6 '85 squad, and Willingham's .500 team from last year.

Category	2004	2005	Change
Record vs common opponents	0.500	0.667	+33%
PPG vs common opponents	26.8	36.0	+34%
PPG allowed vs common opponents	28.3	25.7	+10%
MOV vs common opponents	-1.5	+10.3	+11.8

Here's MOV compared to last year:

Opponent	2004 MOV	2005 MOV	Home field Adj	Change
Pittsburgh	-3	+21	+6	+30
Michigan	+8	+7	+6	+5
Michigan St.	+7	-3	-6	-16
Washington	+35	+19	+6	-10
Purdue	-25	+21	+6	+52
Southern Cal	-31	-3	-6	+22
Average				+13.8

There is an argument to be made that the quality of competition is less this year. Certainly Pitt, Michigan, and Purdue seem to have dropped off. But looking at actual results, the schedule doesn't seem to have slipped that much.

Opponent's record (excluding games vs ND)

Opponent	2004	2005
Pittsburgh	7-4	3-3
Michigan	9-2	4-2
Michigan State	5-6	3-2
Washington	1-9	1-4
Purdue	6-5	2-3
Southern Cal	12-0	5-0
Total	40-26	18-14
Winning %	.606	.563

That's only about 7% worse than last year thus far.

On a somewhat twisted side note, part of me is now glad that we lost to Michigan State. I would hate for Saturday's game to be our only loss of the season.

Statistically speaking | by Pat

Hitting the proverbial halfway point...

• First the bad news. With the loss to Southern Cal, Notre Dame has now dropped four straight home games, which ties the record for longest home losing streak. Despite what Chris Fowler told John Walters, it is the third time in history the Irish have "accomplished" this feat. Over the 1933-34 seasons, Hunk Anderson (a.k.a the first ND head coach to be fired after only three seasons) and Elmer Layden combined to lose four straight at home losing to Pittsburgh (14-0), Purdue (19-0), Southern Cal (19-0), and Texas (7-6). Also, in 1960, Coach Joe Kuharich managed to lose four in a row to the likes of Purdue (51-19), Michigan State (21-0), Pittsburgh (20-13), and Iowa (28-0). The current streak differs only in that all four games were extremely close contests that came down to the final minute. The excellent game notes on und.com highlights the end of each game.

Oct. 23, 2004 - Boston College 24, Notre Dame 23

A 30-yard touchdown pass from BC's Paul Peterson to Tony Gonzalez with 0:54 remaining tied the score and Ryan Ohliger's PAT provides the winning margin for the Eagles.

Nov. 13, 2004 - Pittsburgh 41, Notre Dame 38

The Panthers win a see-saw battle when Josh Cummings drills a 32-yard field goal with just one second remaining. The final drive featured two pass interference calls on the Irish, one of which nullified a game-clinching interception in the end zone.

Sept. 17, 2005 - Michigan State 44, Notre Dame 41

A furious Notre Dame comeback from a 21-point deficit ends in an overtime loss to the Spartans. Jason Teague's 19-yard run on the game's final play provides the winning point total for MSU.

Oct. 15, 2005 - USC 34, Notre Dame 31

After a clutch fourth-down conversion and a wild out-of-bounds fumble on the Irish goal line, Matt Leinart sneaks in from one yard out with three seconds remaining to hand Notre Dame its fourth-consecutive loss in Notre Dame Stadium.

• Let's talk conversion rates. Overall, Notre Dame has allowed opponents to complete 25 of 80 third down attempts. That 31% conversion rate is good for 23rd place in the country. But what's really impressive is that in the 4th quarter, Notre Dame opponents are 3 of 23 when it comes to converting third down chances.

Moving on to 4th down, ND defense has allowed 50% of opponents 4th down tries to be converted. Perhaps taking a page from Weis' aggressive play-calling, opponents have gone for it on 4th down against the Irish 16 times. That is tied with Rutgers and Wyoming for the most in the country. The stat by itself isn't very indicative of anything, but I found it interesting.

• Even the mighty Trojans couldn't slow down Quinn's assualt on the ND record book. He now owns the ND record for consecutive games with a TD pass with 11. He's also currently one good game (225 yards, 1 touchdown) away from moving into 2nd place for career yardage and touchdown passes. He's also still on pace to break nearly every ND single-season record. Perhaps the most impressive feat to me is that not only is he looking to break the single-season records for yardage and passing attempts, but he's also on pace to break the single-season pass completion percentage record currently held Kevin McDougal.

• The primary beneficiary of Quinn's throws, Samardzija not only tied a Notre Dame record (Malcolm Johnson - 1998) by catching a touchdown pass in his sixth consecutive game, he also tied Jack Snow for the 2nd most number of touchdown receptions in a single season with 9. Derrick Mayes still has a tenuous hold on the record with 11 TD receptions.

• Darius Walker's 20 yard run late in the 4th quarter was not only one of the most exciting runs of the game, it was also his longest rush of the season. To date, the longest run from scrimmage still belongs to backup quarterback David Wolke who notched 22 yards on a scamper in the 4th quarter against Pittsburgh.

• NBC is no doubt smiling as the clash with the Trojans produced the highest ratings of the past 11 years. The game scored a 7.9 rating and 17 share, which is the highest since the ND/Michigan game in 1994 that scored a 8.4 rating and 21 share. The peak rating was during the final few minutes of the game when the ratings hit a 14.2 share and 27 share.

• Breaking the season in halves, let's take a look at the average statistical ranking for our opponents in the following offensive and defensive categories.

Season	Run Off.	Pass Off.	Total Off.	Run Def.	Pass Def.	Total Def.
First 6 Opp	40.8	33.5	35.7	55.2	75.5	68.0
Last 5 Opp.	71.2	70.4	70.0	66.0	54.8	56.0

To be clear, the numbers for the opponents we've already played do have the ND stats factored in. It might have been more insightful to take out the Irish numbers, but it also would have been a lot more work. As for analysis, I think we can identify obvious numbers, like the fact that it appears we will be facing weaker offenses, but other than that I wouldn't try to read too much into the other numbers. For example, Navy's 15th ranked pass defense definitely helps the average for the second half opponents pass defense ranking. But are we really going to have a hard time passing against the Midshipmen?

• This one is jumping the gun a lot, but we might as well get it out in the open. If heavy favorites Reggie Bush or Matt Leinart win the Heisman Trophy, that will give Southern Cal seven Heisman Trophy winners, which will tie them with Notre Dame for the most in college football. Notre Dame has been able to claim the title of "Most Heisman Trophy Winners" since 1949 when Leon Hart made ND home to three winners and nudged the Irish past two-time winners Yale (1936,1937) and Army(1945,1946).

Who knows, on top of the memory of this year's game, maybe next year's ND/Southern Cal battle will also be a chance for Brady Quinn to nail down the 2006 Heisman and take back the title for Notre Dame. How's that for overhype and premature prognostication? Beano Cook, eat your heart out.


Season-long Running Averages

Offense

Category	Pitt	UM	MSU	UW	PU	USC	2005	2004
Yards per rush	5.5	2.4	2.8	5.0	3.1	2.9	3.6	3.32
Avg yards per PA	8.4	4.7	8.1	8.8	12.0	7.5	8.4	7.2
Avg yards per PC	11.0	11.7	14.8	13.1	15.6	13.9	13.3	13.4
Pass comp. %	67%	63%	55%	68%	77%	54%	63%	54%
3rd downs conv.	10/15 (67%)	4/15 (27%)	6/18 (33%)	6/13 (46%)	10/16 (63%)	10/19 (53%)	46/96 (48%)	68/183 (37%)
Rushing yd avg	275.0	104.0	107.0	233.0	153.0	153.0	170.8 (34th)	127.4 (85th)
Passing yd avg	227.0	140.0	487.0	327.0	468.0	264.0	318.8 (9th)	218.1 (54th)
Total offense	502.0	244.0	594.0	560.0	621.0	417.0	489.7 (12th)	345.5 (81st)
Time of Possession	32:45	30:55	35:49	36:56	36:03	38:40	35:12	30:50
Red Zone TDs	5/6 (83%)	2/2 (100%)	4/5 (80%)	3/5 (60%)	5/5 (100%)	2/4 (50%)	21/27 (78%)	25/36 (69%)

Defense

Category	Pitt	UM	MSU	UW	PU	USC	2005	2004
Yards/rush given up	3.3	2.4	4.5	1.9	6.8	5.6	4.4	2.7
Avg yards per PA	6.3	5.1	12.1	10.2	6.0	9.1	7.7	7.9
Avg yards per PC	11.0	11.7	20.4	21.5	10.6	17.7	14.8	13.6
Pass completion %	57%	43%	59%	48%	57%	52%	52%	58%
Quarterback sacks	5	2	1	3	0	2	13	30
Rushing yd against	103.0	114.0	161.0	41.0	164.0	175.0	126.3 (46th)	88.2 (4th)
Passing yd against	220.0	223.0	327.0	408.0	350.0	301.0	304.8 (114th)	281.2 (116th)
Total offense against	323.0	337.0	488.0	449.0	514.0	476.0	431.2 (101st)	369.4 (54th)

Turnovers

Category	Pitt	UM	MSU	UW	PU	USC	2005	2004
Interceptions by ND	1	1	1	1	1	2	7	9
Fumbles Forced / Recovered	2/1	3/1	4/2	2/2	1/1	0/0	12/7	27/12
Turnovers gained	2	2	3	3	2	2	14	21
Had Intercepted	1	0	1	0	2	1	5	10
Fumbles / Lost	1/0	3/1	1/1	2/0	0/0	2/1	9/3	15/6
Turnovers lost	1	1	2	0	2	2	8	16
Turnover Margin	+1	+1	+1	+3	0	0	+6	+5

Special Teams

Category	Pitt	UM	MSU	UW	PU	USC	2005	2004
Kickoff return average	17.5	24.0	21.5	31.0	31.0	9.8	19.8	18.7
Kickoff return average allowed	16.0	18.0	20.8	16.0	25.2	17.6	19.1	19.9
Punt return average	23.0	19.0	11.0	15.5	0.0	21.8	16.5	10.8
Punt return average allowed	0.0	5.2	2.0	10.0	9.0	4.3	5.2	8.2

_

Fun Stat O' the Day: With Zibby's punt return for a TD -- the first since Willingham's first game at ND in 2002 -- the Irish now rank 8th in the country in punt return average. Odd stat of the day: Even with Reggie Bush, Southern Cal ranks 107th. That is to say, one spot behind Navy.

P6: BCS edition | by Jay

Pick Six Standings updated based on the release of the first BCS rankings, so everything's topsy-turvy.

TheseAreMyDadsShoes jumps into the lead with 101 points.

In the BlogPollers' division of the Pick Six, we've got a new leader with University of the Army blogger KingMouse.

A couple of ranked battles to keep an eye on this week: #6 LSU vs #18 Auburn, #7 (!) Texas Tech at #2 Texas, and #19 Tennessee at #5 Alabama.

BCS BS | by Jay

First official BCS standings came out yesterday. Here's how the standings work.

• How the Harris Poll "works".
  

• USA Today / Coaches Poll.
  

• How the computers work.

Long story short, we're #16.

		Harris			USA Today			Computers			BCS Avg
1	Southern Cal	1	2806	0.9933	1	1540	0.9935	1	990	0.99	0.9923
2	Texas	2	2725	0.9646	2	1492	0.9626	2	950	0.95	0.9591
3	Virginia Tech	3	2596	0.9189	3	1428	0.9213	4	880	0.88	0.9067
4	Georgia	4	2491	0.8818	4	1361	0.8781	3	920	0.92	0.8933
5	Alabama	5	2278	0.8064	5	1255	0.8097	5	850	0.85	0.822
6	LSU	7	2031	0.7189	7	1154	0.7445	T-9	660	0.66	0.7078
7	Texas Tech	9	1876	0.6641	8	1079	0.6961	7	750	0.75	0.7034
8	Miami (Fla)	6	2239	0.7926	6	1218	0.7858	T-13	500	0.5	0.6928
9	UCLA	8	1958	0.6931	9	1053	0.6794	11	630	0.63	0.6675
10	Penn State	12	1496	0.5296	14	726	0.4684	6	760	0.76	0.586
11	Florida State	10	1701	0.6021	10	934	0.6026	T-13	500	0.5	0.5682
12	Boston College	13	1440	0.5097	11	859	0.5542	15	470	0.47	0.5113
13	Oregon	16	1108	0.3922	16	588	0.3794	T-9	660	0.66	0.4772
14	Wisconsin	17	954	0.3377	17	553	0.3568	8	700	0.7	0.4648
15	Ohio State	14	1325	0.469	13	742	0.4787	16	330	0.33	0.4259
16	Notre Dame	11	1694	0.5996	12	846	0.5458	25	50	0.05	0.3985
17	West Virginia	20	670	0.2372	20	405	0.2613	12	570	0.57	0.3562
18	Auburn	15	1188	0.4205	15	655	0.4226	23	120	0.12	0.321
19	Tennessee	18	794	0.2811	18	543	0.3503	21	240	0.24	0.2905
20	Florida	19	761	0.2694	19	450	0.2903	T-18	280	0.28	0.2799
21	TCU	22	393	0.1391	21	221	0.1426	17	310	0.31	0.1972
22	Minnesota	25	207	0.0733	25	90	0.0581	T-18	280	0.28	0.1371
23	Nebraska	24	235	0.0832	29	55	0.0355	20	270	0.27	0.1296
24	Michigan State	21	477	0.1688	22	190	0.1226	NR	0	0	0.0971
25	California	23	377	0.1335	23	175	0.1129	NR	0	0	0.0821

Questions? Yeah, we got 'em too. Let's start with, oh, I don't know...SIXTEEN? What the hell?

Pat Forde of ESPN asks the same thing:

The Fighting Irish are three spots behind Oregon, which is a morsel of microchip madness that defies belief.

Please, somebody ask USC which team it would rather play.

You think the Trojans would choose the Ducks, who lost 45-13 to USC in Eugene? Or would it choose the Irish, who took the Trojans into the final seconds and had them all but beaten until a providential fumble and a solid push from Reggie Bush allowed the two-time defending champs to escape?

The Colley Matrix, Anderson & Hester and the other computer wizards can't factor in how close Notre Dame came to winning that game. The pollsters could and should.

The AP voters did, keeping the Irish in the top 10. But the two polls that count from a BCS perspective -- the Harris poll and the USA Today coaches' poll -- dropped Notre Dame three spots each. The Irish went from ninth to 12th with the coaches and from eighth to 11th in the Old Folks Poll.

Seriously: If Notre Dame was a top 10 team before playing USC, what happened Saturday that convinced voters it was no longer a top 10 team afterward? To justify dropping the Irish, you'd have to reason that USC isn't very good either and drop the Trojans two or three spots. You'd have to say that the game really wasn't that great after all.

Which, of course, no one is saying.

But as dumb as the polls are, it's the computer rankings that kill Notre Dame. The microchips rank it 25th.

That's because the Irish's three victories over ranked teams -- Pittsburgh, Michigan and Purdue -- have all lost their luster as those teams have fallen apart. But maybe, just maybe, Notre Dame had something to do with those collapses. All three looked legit until Charlie Weis' team skewered them on their own home fields.

And that's the other part of the equation that doesn't add up. Unlike so many teams in front of Notre Dame in the BCS Standings, the Irish have done their work on the road. Of the 15 teams in front of them in the standings, only USC has played four of its first six games away from home.

Texas Tech has played one road game, and needed a fumbled interception in the final minute to get a victory. Ohio State has played one road game, and lost. Penn State has played two of seven games on the road, losing one and barely escaping Northwestern in the other. Alabama is 2-0 on the road, but needed a field goal on the final play Saturday to beat 2-4 Mississippi.

Bottom line: In August, none of the 15 teams in front of Notre Dame would have accepted playing the Irish's opening schedule without pitching a screaming hissy fit (or, more likely, dropping at least one of those opponents in favor of a home date with Louisiana-Lafayette). Put that in your computer rankings, boys.

Yep, the computers are killing us. A computer (apart from the Robot Genius, that is), can't look at the game on Saturday and see the relative excellence of Notre Dame, because it doesn't look at margin of victory and just how well a team played in a loss (or a win, for that matter). Any computer ranking that doesn't take into account margin of victory (perhaps with a cap to prevent Spurrieresque run-ups) is fatally flawed.

The good news is that if we win the rest of our games, we should be right there in a BCS bowl.