Friday, August 14, 2009

Super Savers | by Jay

We had sparser participation in this year's ticket lottery poll, but that's our fault for waiting a few weeks after the results were announced. Still, we had around 750 entries (after filtering for shenanigans), so it's a pretty good spread. Here are the results.

Game
All Apps Regular Alum Sorin Society Monogram
req
won
rate
req
won
rate
req
won
rate
req
won
rate
Nevada
658 647 98% 368 359 98% 237 235 99% 53 53 100%
@ Michigan
222 86 39% 130 40 31% 76 38 50% 16 8 50%
Michigan State
884 796 90% 494 408 83% 327 325 99% 63 63 100%
@ Purdue
82 75 91% 48 41 85% 26 26 100% 8 8 100%
Washington
544 536 99% 282 274 97% 215 215 100% 47 47 100%
Southern Cal
1150 686 60% 635 227 36% 428 374 87% 87 85 98%
Boston College
808 764 95% 432 392 91% 305 301 99% 71 71 100%
Wash. State (@ SA)
230 226 98% 144 140 97% 70 70 100% 16 16 100%
Navy
582 576 99% 282 276 98% 262 262 100% 38 38 100%
@ Pittsburgh
211 99 47% 119 53 45% 74 36 49% 18 10 56%
Connecticut
372 364 98% 159 153 96% 171 169 99% 42 42 100%
@ Stanford
94 92 98% 50 48 96% 34 34 100% 10 10 100%

It should be obvious to anyone browsing this table, but I'll spell it out: win rates were way up this year, with only Southern Cal falling below a 90% win rate for home games. In the three years we've done the poll, these are the highest win rates we've ever seen, including following the lackluster 2007 season. (Earlier polls available here: 2006, 2007, 2008). Last year, only one home game hit the 90% mark (Syracuse), while even less star-studded games were a tough ticket (Stanford, just 14%). This year, six of the seven home games were up over 90%, with Nevada, Washington, Navy, and Connecticut being damned near guaranteed admission, just for asking. Two years ago, the Southern Cal win rate was a measly 4%; this year, it's up to 60%.

And with the win rates being so high, it's safe to say that demand in this year's lottery was way, way down. In fact, we had more than a few comments from people submitting blank entries, with explanations that no application was sent this year.

What's the reason? The economy? Lack of disposable cash on hand this year? Or diminished expectations for the Irish, and a crummy slate of home games to boot? Probably a little of each.