Odds & Sods: Folsom Prison Blues Edition | by Mike

Race: out. Well, that was a fun way to start the season. It's tough to complain about a game where the defense shuts out the opponent and the offense scores touchdowns on five of its first six possessions. Jimmy Clausen and Michael Floyd put on quite the show, producing comical stat lines in the process. Golden Tate had a nifty sideline grab, but I think I liked his blocking on the Swing pass to Floyd even more. The defense crashing through the Nevada offensive line on 4th and inches and Brian Smith's sacks were also fun. The Irish were one of a handful of Division I-A (sorry, no "FBS" here) to play an opponent with a pulse, and they thoroughly demolished that opponent.

Last gang in town. The excitement over the passing statistics against Nevada should be tempered by the fact that Nevada was ranked last in passing defense last year. It's not like these numbers were achieved against Southern Cal. On the other hand, Nevada was ranked 54th in pass efficiency defense, usually a more meaningful statistic than simple passing defense. And Jimmy Clausen's pass efficiency rating for the first week? Tops in the nation. There may be something to the apparent improvement in the running game, given that Nevada was ranked sixth in rushing defense last year.

Nevada's prior year offensive ranking provides some context to the defense's first shutout since Rutgers in 2002. Nevada finished fifth in total offense last year. The current incarnation of the Wolfpack offense includes three 1,000 yard rushers, including EDSBS favorite Colin Kaepernick, one of just five players in major college football history to pass for 2,000 yards and rush for 1,000 yards in the same season. Yesterday's game was just the third shutout of Chris Ault's 25-year Hall-of-Fame career at Nevada. A major contributing factor was the defense's performance on 3rd down - limiting Nevada to just 2/11 on third-down conversions. That's an impressive number against a mobile quarterback like Kaepernick. Though aided by a missed field goal, the shutout might be more impressive than the offensive numbers.

First to finish, last to start. The following is the list of the twenty-one players I believe saw their first game action yesterday (corrections welcome):

Dayne Crist Theo Riddick Deion Walker Shaquelle Evans John Goodman Christopher Gurries (walk-on) Bobby Burger Tyler Eifert Lane Clelland Mike Golic, Jr. Jordan Cowart

Hafis Williams Kapron-Lewis Moore Sean Cwynar Manti Te'o Anthony McDonald David Posluszny Dan McCarthy Zeke Motta Jamoris Slaughter Nicholas Tausch

There are a few things I like about how these players were brought into the mix. First, many of these guys were able to redshirt their freshman year, particularly along the lines (Clelland, Golic, Hafis, KLM, Cwynar). This is actually a significant change from a few years ago, when the lack of bodies in the upper classes forced pretty much every healthy lineman to play as a freshman (as was the case with Turkovich, Duncan, Young, Olsen, Kuntz, etc.). Second, few freshmen were thrust into starting roles. In 2006, Sam Young had to hold down a starting position from the moment he arrived on campus. Yesterday, (outside of specialists like Tausch and Cowart) the freshmen were allowed to get a fair amount of playing time in the second half, after the game was in hand. Third, while most of the freshmen were introduced in low-risk game situations, Weis mixed in some of the more experienced backups in the first half, getting them valuable experience with the first team and against a first-team defense. Matt Romine, Andrew Nuss and Jonas Gray all saw meaningful playing time in the first half. This is how programs with depth develop experience, and a marked change from previous years.

I'm waiting for the man. Every one was waiting for Manti Te'o to enter the game, and he did not disappoint. When Te'o recorded his first tackle, the crowd's eruption was clearly discernible on the broadcast. Te'o certainly looked fluid moving through traffic. I expect Te'o's playing time to be one of the most hotly debated topics of the season. As much promise as Te'o shows, he is still a freshman (and one without the benefit of early enrollment). He doesn't have the experience to play Mike, so when Te'o comes in as Will, Brian Smith has to move to Mike. We know how effective Brian Smith can be at Will (two sacks yesterday), but he does not yet appear similarly productive at Mike. Which is the better combination - Brian Smith at Will and Toryan Smith at Mike or Manti Te'o at Will and Brian Smith at Mike?

The next movement. The one disappointing part of Saturday's game was Vai Taua's success on the ground, particularly with inside runs. Taua rushed 18 times for 114 yards, a 6.3 ypc average. The defense didn't so much stop Taua as the offensive onslaught took him out of the game. Taua's success leaves the questions about the defense's ability to stop the run unanswered. The Michigan State and Southern Cal rushing attacks still look like big challenges, and if Brandon Minor is healthy he will join Brandon Graham and Mike Martin as the list of concerns for the Michigan game.

Kickoff! | by Pat

Go Irish! Beat Wolf Pack!

By the way, for even more ND talk today and in the future, check out John Walters's new home at FanHouse. Congrats and good luck JDub.

ah, Gameday | by Jay

Watching. Waiting. Ready.

Pistols at Dawn | by Jay

Kevin's writeup of the Nevada Pistol a few months ago is a good refresher on what we'll see tomorrow. Check it out.

And for you slackers that haven't memorized the depth chart, BGS friend Mike B. has updated his annual ND cheat sheet.

Predictions Galore | by Jay

It's probably hard to believe, but we here at BGS really only do one true prediction post a year. Sure, we offer opinions and guesses on all kinds of things, but if you look back I think you'll find that we haven't done a lot of "stone--cold--lock" type of posts over the years. Predictive journalism (and predictive blogging), I think, is easy and fun to write, but ultimately empty: it's always bold and brassy to claim to know the future -- and convenient for the author, because nobody usually checks up afterwards to see if the predictions came true. Mostly, though, predictive commentary is empty because predictions are usually wrong. I'm reminded of a comment by blogger Bryan Appleyard, talking about the pitfalls of punditry:

Writing about Jonah Lehrer's book on decision making in The Sunday Times, I didn't mention the findings of Philip Tetlock at Berkeley. He studied pundits and discovered they were, to a rough approximation, always wrong when making predictions. He took 284 pundits and asked them questions about the future. Their performance was worse than chance. With three possible answers, they were right less than 33 per cent of the time. A monkey chucking darts would have done better.

This is consoling. More consoling still is Tetlock's further finding that the more certain a pundit was, the more likely he was to be wrong. Their problem being that they couldn't self-correct, presumably because they'd invested so much of their personality and self-esteem in a specific view. (That makes me think of so many people, almost everybody, in fact.) Tetlock said: 'The dominant danger remains hubris, the vice of closed-mindedness, of dismissing dissonant possibilites too quickly.'

Anyhow, the pundit team at BGS (and BGS emeritus-- thanks, Sean!) ignored all that Tetlock and Appleyard worrywart stuff and got our picks down on paper for the 2009 Irish season. Stone. Cold. Lock!

2009 BGS Predictions

BGS

Nev

UM

MSU

PU

UW

USC

BC

WSU

Pitt

Navy

Conn

Stan

W-L

Kevin

W

W

W

W

W

W

W

W

L

W

W

W

11-1

Dylan

W

W

W

W

W

L

W

W

W

W

W

W

11-1

Jay

W

W

L

W

W

L

W

W

L

W

W

W

9-3

Jeff

L

W

L

W

W

L

W

W

W

W

W

W

9-3

Michael

W

W

W

W

W

W

W

W

L

W

W

W

11-1

Mike

W

W

L

W

W

L

L

W

W

W

W

W

9-3

Pat

W

W

W

W

W

L

W

W

L

W

W

W

10-2

Pete

W

W

L

W

W

L

W

W

W

W

W

W

10-2

Sean

W

W

W

W

W

L

W

W

W

W

W

L

10-2

As usual, we also fired around a few meta-questions for the group, such as...

1. What will the three closest/toughest games be, and why?

Kevin- Michigan, USC, and Pitt: the favorite generally has a tough time in the ND-UM game; USC is USC, and their defense will give us fits; Pitt would have been our second-most dangerous opponent with McCoy, and they may still be. I think ND could have a let-down after the USC and BC games.

Dylan- MSU (W). They have a decent coach, and they have our number. This will be the season-defining game. If we can overmatch them on the lines, it means a trip to the BCS. c) Pitt. Our offensive problems of the past two years open the door to being beaten by solid defensive teams, and if Wannstedt is good at anything (which is not a given) it’s putting defenses together.

Mike- Michigan State - I think Dantonio will continue to pound away with the running game all day, which will start to really pay off in the second half. Their defense should be solid. Also, I've been generally impressed with what Dantonio has done with the MSU program. He even may have cured their trademark mental instability. When the replay official made up a rule to give Michigan a touchdown last year, the Spartans kept their composure and went on to win the game comfortably. Contrast this to the John-El era, when this type of setback (e.g., the FG attempt against OSU) would cause their entire season to unravel. 3. Boston College - I don't think BC is one of the three best teams on the schedule. They don't have a quarterback and they lost the three players on their defense who were head and shoulders above everyone else on their roster. Pitt and Stanford should prove themselves to be better teams than BC. That said, BC always treats this game like the Super Bowl. The Irish will suffer the inevitable post-Southern Cal let down. (How has this game been scheduled immediately after a far more important game for ND so often? The week after Florida State, the week after Southern Cal, one year sandwiched in between games against Southern Cal and Tennessee, etc. It's like the schedule is designed to ensure that ND overlooks this game.)

Pete- Michigan, Michigan State, USC. The Michigan-ND series has never been about blowouts, and has its fair share of upsets. Michigan State seems to have had ND's number since the Davie days, and USC is, well, the best team on the schedule (although probably in worse shape this year than any other time in the Weis Era.

2. What's a game we should win handily, but might give us some problems?

Kevin- Stanford.

Dylan- Nevada . Defending a gimmick offense in the first game of the year could be a problem. Thankfully, they have the worst pass defense in the history of everything, so it shouldn’t matter.

Pete- Boston College. They should be absolutely in the dumps this year, but Notre Dame has never made a habit of blowing them out (let alone beating them in recent years), and they're in prime USC-hangover real estate. Hopefully last year's debacle remains fresh in the team's mind, even if they're riding high after finally beating USC.

Jeff- Nevada – A good scrambling QB and the pistol offense scares me a bit. Maybe I am worrying too much, but if Nevada plays like they have nothing to lose and the Irish play like they did against SD State last season, I could easily see a loss in the home opener.

Pat- Nevada or BC come to mind, but I think I might go with UConn. By then ND might be a bit beat up and it's possible the lack of depth at certain positions might become more of an issue. Edsell is building a pretty solid team so who knows what could happen if the November weather makes ND's passing game less effective.

Sean- On paper, I think ND should beat Nevada handily and ultimately I think we'll win a high scoring game by a couple touchdowns, but I think a combination of the home opener doldrums (which, let's face it this team has had for several years now) and Colin Kapernick will keep Nevada in until the fourth quarter. Eventually, talent wins out but nails will be bitten for three quarters.

3. Which freshman will make the biggest mark on the season (or name two, if Nick Tausch is your #1)?

Kevin- Tausch and Shaquelle Evans.

Dylan- Shaq Evans. If he can grab the number three WR spot, he could do a lot to open up the field even if he doesn’t catch a lot of balls.

Pete- Tausch obviously has to be number one, and I really hope Manti Te'o is number two.

Pat- Te'o and Tausch.

Sean- Easy answers are Te'o and Tausch but I'll add Zeke Motta (playing on all four special teams and I think will see the field in that Harrison Smith hybrid LB/safety role some) and Theo Riddick (KO return) to the list as well.

4. Will ND go to a bowl, and if so, which one?

Kevin- One of the non-title BCS games. I think a one-loss ND team would be the odd man out, and Florida and the Big XII champ will play for the title.

Dylan- Since there’s no real risk of the PAC-10 or Big 1? champ getting to the BCS championship game, the Rose Bowl is out, making the Fiesta and Sugar the most likely BCS targets. I’ll flip a coin and say it will be the Fiesta Bowl, since that’s closer to where I live.

Mike- Yes. Gator Bowl.

Pete- A non-championship BCS Bowl -- in what may be the team's first true test against an elite team this year if USC hits some bumps in the road.

Jeff- I expect this season will bring back criers complaining that an undeserving ND team got picked for the Orange Bowl over Penn State/Cal/Boise State/etc.

Pat- Yes, ND will go to one of the BCS bowls and reap the huge financial benefit of the entire $17.5M payou...oh, wait, that's right.

Sean- Yes. Gator Bowl vs ACC runner up Georgia Tech.

5. Finally, will Charlie Weis be the Notre Dame coach next year?

Kevin- Yes; I think ND will win often this year, and the big guy will return to everyone's good graces. I'm not convinced everything's fixed, but I think this team will be pretty good.

Dylan- He will, because I don’t believe we will lose more than two games. More than two losses and I’ll pat him on the back and buy him the ticket back to Jersey .

Mike- Yes. 9-3 against this schedule would not be some great achievement, but it would be enough for Weis to keep his job.

Pete- Awful hard to kick anybody off the sideline at 10-2, but hopefully 2009 shows Weis finally getting over the hump with greener pastures ahead. We should know by Week 3.

Jeff- I may get stoned for staying this (are there any women here today?), but I’d hate to see even an 8-5 Weis get canned unless there is a proven winner ready to take the job (ala Gruden, Meyer, etc.). Ditching Weis for the next Davie, Willingham, or even the next Weis would be a huge mistake unless the program is clearly regressing. Unless there is a true superstar waiting in the wings to coach the Irish, I have to think that any steps forward are good enough, even if they are baby steps.

Pat- Yes he will. He won't answer all of his critics this season, but Charlie should win enough (read: 9 games or more) to keep his job for another season.

Sean- Yes. He's recruiting too well, appears to have a much better grasp on who to surround himself with than his initial set of hires, and the schedule is very employment-friendly.

---

Finally, to go along with the staffers' predictions, here's another link back to the reader poll results, currently in progress. And here's your preseason mood ring based on everyone's responses.

2009 Opponent and Notre Dame Position Preview Summary | by Pat

Alright, the previews are done. It's time to tally everything this up and see where we're at.

For the full previews, click through for the quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, offensive lines, defensive lines, linebackers, and defensive backs. As with last year, we're combining the WR and TE rankings into one combo ranking when determining the averages. In other words, use the rankings for QB, RB, WR/TE, OL, DL, LB, and DB to get the overall average.

Team	QB	RB	WR	TE	WR/ TE	OL	DL	LB	DB	Avg.
Southern Cal	3	1	1	3	2	1	3	4	4	2.6
Pittsburgh	4	11	3	2	2.5	3	1	8	1	4.4
Michigan State	6	9	2	1	1.5	6	7	1	3	4.8
Nevada	2	2	7	6	6.5	4	6	9	10	5.6
Stanford	5	3	8	7	7.5	8	2	6	9	5.8
Michigan	11	4	4	8	6	7	4	5	7	6.3
Boston College	12	5	5	9	7	2	5	12	6	7.0
UConn	8	7	11	11	11	5	11	3	5	7.1
Purdue	9	6	9	4	6.5	10	8	10	2	7.4
Washington	1	10	6	5	5.5	11	10	2	12	7.4
Navy	7	12	12	12	12	9	9	7	8	9.1
Washington St.	10	8	10	10	10	12	12	11	11	10.6

What do you think? Nevada looks a bit high perhaps, but overall the talent rankings tend to match common sense. SC is the class of the opponents with Pitt and MSU close to each other for second hardest opponent. If you were to add in the very important factors that these ranking ignore like special teams, game location, and coaching acumen you might see a few teams swap spots, but there probably wouldn't be too much movement.

Now then, time to take a look at ND and see just how they fare when going through the same position preview treatment. I'll list the starters the same way as we do for the opponents, offer
some brief commentary, and where I would rank them compared to the above table.

Quarterback

Jimmy Clausen. (#10) Junior. Returning Starter.
2008 stats: 268 completions, 440 attempts, 3172 yards, 25 TDs, 17 INTs.

Jimmy still needs to cut down on the interceptions and improve his pocket presence, but he's still a pretty good college QB and could easily have a Quinn-like breakout junior season. Add in the experienced Evan Sharpley, the heavily recruited Dayne Crist, and the lack of many proven star quarterbacks on the schedule, I think ND belongs at the top of the list. Ranking: 1

Running Back

Armando Allen. (#47) Junior. Returning Starter.
2008 stats: 134 carries, 585 yards, 3 TDs.

Outside of Southern Cal, are there any programs in the country that have five running backs on the depth chart that were Top 100 recruits coming out of high school? That's what ND has as they field one of the deepest and most talented group of runners in a long time, featuring Jonas Gray, Robert Hughes, James Aldridge (#54), Cierre Wood, and Theo Riddick . Still, the production hasn't been there yet with the same group of runners, so they don't belong near the very top of the list yet. After Stanford and the proven Toby Gerhart sounds about right for now. Ranking: 4

Wide Receiver

Golden Tate. (#6) Junior. Returning Starter.
2008 stats: 58 receptions, 1080 yards, 10 TDs.
Michael Floyd. Sophomore. Returning Starter.
2008 stats: 48 receptions, 719 yards, 7 TDs.

There is no denying that ND has one of the top receiver tandems in the country. Golden Tate is a fantastic deep threat and Floyd is a star in the making. While that is enough for most teams, ND also has the experienced Duval Kamara (#22) and Robby Parris along with the promising John Goodman, Deion Walker, and Shaq Evans. Clausen has a collection of passing targets that are as good as any in the country. Ranking: 1

Tight End

Kyle Rudolph. Sophomore. Returning Starter.
2008 stats: 29 receptions, 340 yards, 2 TDs.

While the loss of Yeatman and Fauria hurts, ND is still in pretty good shape at tight end. Rudolph is going to be one of the best tight ends in the country this year. He alone should be enough to move ND to the top of the TE list. But while Mike Ragone (#19) is also extremely talented, he is coming off his second major knee injury and the other backups are either freshmen or a (talented) walk-on transfer. Right now I'm putting them barely behind MSU and the solid Spartan depth chart. Ranking: 2

Offensive Line

LT: Paul Duncan. RS Senior. Returning Starter.
LG: Chris Stewart. (#13 OG) RS Junior. Returning Starter.
C: Eric Olsen. (#25 OG) Senior. Returning Starter.
RG: Trevor Robinson. Sophomore. New Starter.
RT: Sam Young. (#4 OT) Senior. Returning Starter.

I imagine this is the one that will generate the most debate. Where to put an OL that is one of the most veteran and experienced in the country, but also one of the most underperforming? Do we have faith that the Verducci-coached lot will live up to the positive fall press? ND's line is bigger than any other OL on the schedule, but is that a good thing? Perhaps giving them more benefit of a doubt than they deserve, I'm putting them behind a UConn line that was very productive last year but needs to find a few new starters and ahead of a tough MSU line that has to replace their two best linemen from last season. Ranking: 5

Defensive Line

DE: Kerry Neal. Junior. Returning Starter.
2008 stats: 25 tackles, 2.0 sacks, 4.0 TFL, 1 INT.
DT: Ian Williams. (#20 DT) Junior. Returning Starter.
2008 stats: 40 tackles, 2.0 TFL, stuff.
DT: Ethan Johnson. Sophomore. New Starter.
2008 stats: 18 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 5.0 TFL.
DE: Kapron Lewis-Moore. RS Freshman New Starter.
2008 stats: N/A

Looking at the stats, not a lot of returning tackles. We're all excited about the potential Ethan Johnson started to show at the end of last season, but the true measure of the line might come down to how quickly Kapron Lewis-Moore adapts to being a starter. Few opponents have a starting nose tackle as big as Ian Williams. Hopefully he really is in as good a shape as the coaches claim. Due to the collective inexperience, I'm putting them behind MSU's revamped line, but ahead of a talented but very thin Michigan line. Ranking: 7

Linebacker

SLB: Darius Fleming. Sophomore. New Starter.
2008 stats: 24 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 2.5 TFL.
MLB: Toryan Smith. (#53 ILB) Senior. New Starter.
2008 stats: 18 tackles, 1 FR.
WLB: Brian Smith. (#14 ILB) Junior. Returning Starter.
2008 stats: 54 tackles, 2.0 sacks, 4.0 TFL, 2 FR, 1 FF.

There is a whole lot of speed at the linebacker position this year. But there is also a lot of inexperience. Brian Smith is really the only veteran on the line. However, Darius Fleming is a talent against the pass, Toryan Smith has the bulk to stop the run, and there's that guy named Manti Te'o waiting in the wings. There is just a ton of potential in this group. Will it show early in the season? Ranking: 7

Defensive Back

CB: Robert Blanton. Sophomore. New Starter.
2008 stats: 33 tackles, 3.0 TFL, 2 INTs, 3 breakups.
CB: Raeshon McNeil. (#47 CB) Senior. Returning Starter.
2008 stats: 41 tackles, 2 INTs, 11 breakups.
SS: Kyle McCarthy. (#21) RS Senior. Returning Starter.
2008 stats: 11o tackles, 3.0 TFL, 1 INT, 1 breakup, 1 FF.
FS: Harrison Smith. (#15) RS Sophomore. Returning Starter.
2008 stats: 57 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 8.5 TFL, 7 breakups.

Even with the loss of David Bruton, this is a fantastic secondary. The corners are rock solid with Darrin Walls (#15) likely to push back into the starting lineup at some point. Then add in Gary Gray, Sergio Brown, and Jamoris Slaugther and ND is loaded at corner. There isn't too much depth at safety, but McCarthy is as steady as they come and won't miss many tackles. Count me in the group that thinks the transition back to safety will be an easy one for Harrison Smith. Ranking: 1

Let's throw the ND numbers into the same table and see what we get.

Team	QB	RB	WR	TE	WR/ TE	OL	DL	LB	DB	Avg.
Notre Dame	1	4	1	2	1.5	5	7	7	1	3.8

A 3.8 ranking puts ND right behind Southern Cal talent wise and ahead of Pitt and MSU. The big question is, can Charlie and his staff provide the coaching to match the talent and lead ND to an 11-1 record or better? Thankfully we only need to wait one more day before we start to find out.

1.21 Gigawatts | by Jay

Let's hop in the DeLorean and make some picks!

Enter the BGS 2009 Prediction Poll

After you've marked your ballot, you should be able to see the results summary here. After all, it's your density.

(ed. We're bumping this up to the top so folks don't miss it, but don't miss the linebacker and defensive back previews which were just posted below)

2009 Opponent Position Preview: Defensive Backs | by Kevin

Now up: Defensive Backs. Now that Game Week is upon us, portions of this preview may be leaner than were those covering quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, offensive lines, defensive lines, and linebackers. Be sure to check back later today for the summary of all positions and where we think ND fits.

Do know this: these secondaries will not dictate the success or failure of Notre Dame's passing attack in 2009. If ND's receivers have made a few subtle but important improvements -- coming off the line cleaner, better blocking, running deeper, crisper intermediate routes -- they'll be impossible to stop and difficult to contain.

NEVADA

CB: Antoine Thompson. Senior. Returning Starter.
2008 Stats: 36 tackles, 1 INT, 8 breakups.
CB: Isaiah Frey. Sophomore. Returning Starter.
2008 Stats: 23 tackles, 3 breakups.
FS: Jonathan Amaya. Senior. Returning Starter.
2008 Stats: 68 tackles, 4 INTs, 6 breakups, 2.5 sacks.
SS: Mo Harvey. Senior. Returning Starter.
2008 Stats: 22 tackles, 3 INTs, 4 breakups.

Nevada had the 91st-rated pass defense in the country last year, but all four starters return. Or should that second clause be "and all four starters return"? That's up to these four, all of whom accumulated surprisingly decent statistics on a team that surrendered more than 240 passing yards per game. Amaya and Harvey are a fairly dangerous duo, successfully defending 17 passes between them. Elsewhere on the depth chart are Senior free safety Cameron Bayne, true Freshman strong safety Duke Williams, Junior corner Doyle Miller and redshirt Freshman corners Thaddeus Brown and Khalid Wooten.

MICHIGAN

CB: Donovan Warren (#8). Junior. Returning Starter.
2008 Stats: 52 tackles, 1 INT, 5 breakups.
CB: Boubacar Cissoko. Sophomore. New Starter.
2008 Stats: 15 tackles (all well below the waist).
FS: Mike Williams. RS Sophomore. New Starter.
2008 Stats: 18 tackles, 1 sack.
SS: Troy Woolfolk. Junior. New Starter.
2008 Stats: 15 tackles.

If the 2009 Michigan-Notre Dame game drills a pit into your gut, you're not alone. Both programs have everything to prove and everything to lose. Both have suffered through recent 3-9 seasons, both need to build confidence among players and fans, and both need to sustain essential recruiting momentum. Last but not least, both head coaches' jobs may be on the line. Michigan's youth and depth in the secondary should do little to calm nerves in Ann Arbor. Behind Warren are two Freshmen, J.T. Turner and walk-on Teric Jones. Backing up Woolfolk is someone named Jared Van Slyke, a walk-on transfer from Southeast Missouri State. Freshman Vladimir Emilien is the #2 free safety, and peering over Cissoko's head from the backup right corner spot is on J.T. Floyd. To summarize, Freshmen and walk-ons figure prominently in the Wolverine depth chart. If God listened to Michigan fans, I'd recommend they pray for the protection of the starters in the Western Michigan game.

MICHIGAN STATE

CB: Chris Rucker (#49). RS Sophomore. Returning Starter.
2008 Stats: 45 tackles, 2 INTs, 4 breakups.
CB: Jeremy Ware. RS Senior. New Starter.
2008 Stats: 31 tackles, 1 INT, 6 breakups.
FS: Dan Fortener. RS Senior. Returning Starter.
2008 Stats: 69 tackles, 2 INTs, 7 breakups.
SS: Marcus Hyde. RS Junior. New Starter.
2008 Stats: 31 tackles, 1 INT.

Behind Greg Jones -- should they choose to field the other ten defensive players -- is an experienced Spartan secondary. Rucker and Fortener are the big names, but the group is pretty deep. Ross Weaver is listed as neck-and-neck with fellow fifth-year Senior Ware, Sophomore Johnny Adams will spell Rucker, and fifth-year Senior Kendall Davis-Clark, returning after a shoulder injury in 2008, will see considerable time at safety -- he has played both the free and strong spots in the past. Sophomore Trenton Robinson is listed at #2 behind Fortener at the FS spot. A roster full of veterans and talented young guys is a good formula for success, and the State defense should help compensate as a young QB and RB fights their way through the learning curve.

PURDUE

CB: Brandon King. RS Senior. Returning Starter.
2008 Stats: 48 tackles, 1 INT, 9 breakups.
CB: David Pender. Senior. Returning Starter.
2008 Stats: 32 tackles, 1 INT, 12 breakups.
FS: Torri Williams (#32). 6th Year Senior. Returning Starter.
2008 Stats: 83 tackles, 2 INTs, 6 breakups.
SS: Dwight McLean. Senior. New Starter.
2008 Stats: 36 tackles, 2 INTs, 3 breakups.


No Irv Smith pictures here: the Purdue secondary is to be taken seriously. The starting unit had an impressive 36 passes defended last season. Given McLean's considerable 2008 playing time, this unit essentially returns four starters. Both corners are risky bets for opposing quarterbacks, and both safeties are versatile defenders. They're not the #1 overall unit because they're a touch green further down the depth chart. Holding the #2 corner spots are Sophomore Charlton Williams and Freshman Josh Johnson. Backing up Williams at free safety is Sophomore Albert Evans, and behind McLean is Junior Josh McKinley.

WASHINGTON

CB: Quinton Richardson (#23). RS Sophomore. Returning Starter.
2008 Stats: 32 tackles, 1 INT, 6 breakups.
CB: Justin Glenn. RS Freshman. New Starter.
2008 Stats: N/A
FS: Greg Walker. RS Freshman. New Starter.
2008 Stats: N/A
SS: Nate Williams. Junior. Returning Starter.
2008 Stats: 76 tackles, 1 INT, 4 breakups.

Not since Lane Kiffin reported for work in Oakland has a former Southern Cal co-offensive coordinator stepped into a deeper crater of organizational rot. Nick Holt has his hands full with this secondary. Two players who have never played a snap in college football will man a corner spot and centerfield. For depth, UW may call on Senior corner Matt Mosley, who started three games last season, Redshirt Freshman corner Adam Long, Junior strong safety Victor Aiyewa, and talented Sophomore Johri Fogerson, whose promising Freshman campaign last year was cut short by injury.

SOUTHERN CAL

CB: T.J. Bryant. Sophomore. New Starter.
2008 Stats: 7 tackles, 3 breakups.
CB: Kevin Thomas (#31). RS Senior. New Starter.
2008 Stats: 15 tackles, 10 breakups.
FS: Taylor Mays (#1). Senior. Returning Starter.
2008 Stats: 52 tackles, 9 breakups.
SS: Josh Pinkard. 6th Year Senior. New Starter.
2008 Stats: 39 tackles, 1 INT, 3 breakups.

Injuries are beginning to take an early toll on the Trojans, with receiver Ronald Johnson out for 6-8 weeks and quarterback candidate Aaron Corp hampered throughout fall practice. On top of that, bad grades have sidelines Shareece Wright, who would have started at corner for SC. What grade does one have to get to become academically ineligible at USC? An M? Anyway, Wright's out and highly recruited T.J. Bryant steps in. Such is life in Southern California -- a blue-chipper is always a bullpen call away. Bryant will get his chances -- opposing teams may not be too eager to throw at Kevin Thomas. Depth is aplenty: Brian Boucham, Marshall Jones, Daniel Harper at corner; Drew McAllister, Will Harris (Steele's #23 strong safety), and Shane Horton at safeties. Also keep in mind incoming Freshman Jawanza Starling. You may remember Starling from this past recruiting season, as he was rumored to be seriously considering Notre Dame before signing with the Trojans. Starling is the head-hunting type of safety Pete Carroll and USC love, and I would not be surprised to see him fight his way into playing time.

BOSTON COLLEGE

CB: DeLeon Gause. Junior. Returning Starter.
2008 Stats: 22 tackles, 1 INT, 1 breakup.
CB: Roderick Rollins. Senior. Returning Starter.
2008 Stats: 43 tackles, 2 INTs, 1 breakup.
FS: Wes Davis. Junior. Returning Starter.
2008 Stats: 60 tackles, 2 INTs, 6 breakups.
SS: Marcellus Bowman. RS Senior. New Starter.
2008 Stats: 31 tackles, 3 INTs, 1 sack.

This is a strong group, which should help make up for the unfortunate absence of linebacker Mark Herzlich. The veteran starters do stand between the Eagles and a young second team, which features true Freshman strong safety Jim Noel, redshirt Freshman free safety Okechukwu Okoroha, and a pair of Sophomore corners, Donnie Fletcher and Isaac Johnson.

WASHINGTON STATE

CB: Brandon Jones. RS Junior. New Starter.
2008 Stats: N/A
CB: Daniel Simmons. RS Freshman. New Starter.
2008 Stats: N/A
FS: Xavier Hicks. RS Senior. Returning Starter.
2008 Stats: 78 tackles, 2 INTs, 5 breakups.
SS: Chima Nwachukwu (#19). Junior. Returning Starter.
2008 Stats: 57 tackles, 1 INT, 2 breakups.

The starting safeties are pretty good. Otherwise, few defensive backfields in the country are less experienced than this group. Hicks alone prevents the Wazzu secondary from standing out as the soft spot of this team. His seven total pass interruptions stand out, given that Washington State largely took their blowout beatings on the ground. Hicks and Nwachukwu (Chima's brother Uzoma considered the Irish before picking Texas A&M) will both hold their own, but they better be in good shape. The Cougar depth chart is littered with inexperience: Freshman corner Terrance Hayward, Sophomore corner Aire Justin (great name), Freshman FS LeAndre Daniels, and Sophomore strong safety Tyree Toomer.

NAVY

CB: Blake Carter. Senior. New Starter.
2008 Stats: 16 tackles, 1 INT, 1 breakup.
CB: Kevin Edwards. Junior. New Starter.
2008 Stats: Injured.
Rover: Wyatt Middleton. Junior. Returning Starter.
2008 Stats: 80 tackles, 1 INTs, 5 breakups.
FS: Emmett Merchant. Junior. New Starter.
2008 Stats: 41 tackles, 2 INTs.

"Gritty," "fiery," "determined," "disciplined": all components of the Random Navy Preview Generator. Add this one in describing the Midshipmen DBs: athletic. Led by Middleton and Edwards, these guys can get to the ball and the ballcarrier. While not as deep as the Pitts, BCs, and Purdues, Navy has some starpower in Middleton, who enters his third year as a starter. After 2009, Middleton will have started more than 35 games dating back to his Freshman year, in a career marked with highlights: two forced fumbles against Wake Forest in 2008; 14 tackles in the historic win against Notre Dame in 2007 (but not The Sack: that was Ram Vela); and 11 solo tackles in beating Rutgers last year. Navy uses Middleton as a "Rover," a position that typically looks like a hybrid between a middle linebacker and a strong safety. Penn State used a Rover in the Middle Period of the Paterno reign, roughly 30 years ago, and Notre Dame experimented an "Apache" when Rick Minter ran the defense. Middleton has shown the strength and speed to take on both tight ends, running backs, and receivers. At 6'2 and barely 210 pounds, that's quite a feat. I cannot stand the way sportswriters and fans often speak of Navy, Army, and Air Force, as if these teams were full of plucky charity cases instead of Division I athletes and future guardians of national security. Keep Wyatt Middleton in mind when you read such comments -- that he chose to play football at a service academy does not make him any less of a player. Nor is his desire to beat Notre Dame any less than Taylor Mays's or Aaron Berry's. He's a good player, and ND should respect him the only way football players can: by trying to stomp him and his teammates on November 7th.

PITT

CB: Aaron Berry (#65). Senior. Returning Starter.
2008 Stats: 41 tackles, 3 INTs, 10 breakups.
CB: Jovani Chappel. Senior. Returning Starter.
2008 Stats: 45 tackles, 1 INT, 2 breakups.
FS: Andrew Taglianetti. Sophomore. New Starter.
2008 Stats: 9 tackles.
SS: Dom DiCicco (#33). Junior. Returning Starter.
2008 Stats: 56 tackles, 4 INTs, 7 breakups.

Behind the top-rated defensive line on the schedule stand the top-rated defensive backfield. Aaron Berry and Dom DiCicco are elite players, guys who will challenge the ND run game and command perfection from ND's receivers. They did lose free safety Eric Thatcher from last year's 16-interception team, but the rest of that squad is back. Coach Wannstedt has done an excellent job recruiting and developing defensive talent at Pitt. Though the Peter Principle has thus far cast its shadow upon Wannstedt the Head Coach, he is a well-respected defensive mind. I expect this to be another tough game for the Irish. Depthwise, the Panthers are a little thin at corner, with Sophomore Antwuan Reed and Redshirt Freshman Ricky Gary. Blue-chip Redshirt Freshman Jarred Holley should work his way into the mix at safety, as will Junior Elijah Fields (Steele's 44th-ranked draft-eligible free safety).

CONNECTICUT

CB: Robert McClain.Senior. New Starter.
2008 Stats: 30 tackles, 3 INTs, 5 breakups.
CB: Jasper Howard (#64). Junior. Returning Starter.
2008 Stats: 60 tackles, 4 INTs, 9 breakups.
FS: Robert Vaughn (#16). Senior. New Starter.
2008 Stats: 67 tackles, 2 INTs, 3 breakups.
SS: Jerome Junior. RS Freshman. New Starter.
2008 Stats: N/A

UConn has not fared particularly well in some of these position previews. You may recall, for example, that Demetrius Jones's former backup is now their starting quarterback. He may be throwing to a Canadian tight end. The Huskies aren't nearly as weak in the defensive backfield. Jasper Howard is one of the stars of the team, and Robert Vaughn is no slouch himself. They are a man down at strong safety, following the indefinite suspension of Sophomore Aaron Bagsby. Injuries have taken a general toll on the Huskies and have specifically hit the DBs, knocking out Harris Agbor for four to five weeks and John Yurek for the season. They will need to lean on Junior safety Kijuan Dabney and a couple of Redshirt Freshmen, Blidi Wreh-Wilson and Dwyane Gratz.

STANFORD

CB: Richard Sherman (#62). Senior. New Starter.
2008 Stats: Played as a wide receiver.
CB: Corey Gatewood. Junior. New Starter.
2008 Stats: 4 tackles.
FS: Bo McNally (#5). RS Senior. Returning Starter.
2008 Stats: 76 tackles, 4 INTs, 1 breakups, 2 sacks.
SS: Delano Howell. Sophomore. New Starter.
2008 Stats: Played two games as a wide receiver.

Notre Dame fans have seen this approach before: with a lineup providing few clear answers, a coach moves players from offense to defense in hopes of fielding his most athletic team. Harbaugh was planning to do even more of this, using Hudsonville, Michigan, linebacker Alex Debniak as an occasional fullback before Debniak was injured during fall practice. Fortunately for Stanford, free safety Bo McNally is the leader of this patchwork crew. McNally is one of the better safeties ND will see this year. Depthwise, Stanford will call on Senior corner Kris Evans, Redshirt Freshman corner Quinn Evans, and Junior safeties Taylor Skaufel and Austin Yancy. Yancy in particular will push for playing time; also a former wide receiver, he played well at strong safety in 2007, with 49 tackles and five breakups, before missing 2008 with an injury.

2009 Opponent Defensive Backs Analysis and Rankings

Another preview, another illustration of how Notre Dame matches up favorably to the opposition. While Pat handled the most critical previews -- defensive and offensive lines -- and ND has some big question marks in those areas, I have been very encouraged by the passing game previews I've handled. ND will face some talented receivers and tight ends this year, and they'll see some good individual defensive backs. But no opponent, from this vantage point, appears complete or particularly deep. Such is the case with the defensive backfields. Even USC may have a couple holes -- enough that they're not ranked #1 below. Taylor Mays, who may be the best opposing player ND will see this year, will likely be a problem. But with Shareece Wright taking a seat for bad grades, and a new strong safety opposite Mays, the Trojan DBs should not overwhelm the Irish receivers.

While this is one preview in which Purdue stands out, I do not expect either of their corners to provide insurmountable challenges to Floyd and Tate, and I doubt their safeties will emerge unscathed against the Kyle Rudolph matchup nightmare. Nevada has everyone back, but that's also the bad news for a Wolfpack team that was among the worst in the country in pass defense last season. Pitt will be very tough, while Washington and Washington State may be in for more of the same.

Back to Notre Dame for a second. I will be surprised if Michael Floyd does not conclude his college career as best Notre Dame wide receiver since Tim Brown. He is already the most technically sound receiver on the team, he is built like a (tall) linebacker, and he is plenty fast. Considering he enters 2009 as only the second most-heralded Irish receiver, I like ND's pass/catch chances against each opponent. This is not a team or a season free of concerns, and 2008 was far from a successful year, but I don't feel irresponsible embracing an optimistic outlook.

1. Pitt - I think they're going to be an excellent defensive team this year.
2.Purdue - This hurts me more than it hurts you.
3. Michigan State - Even with Otis Wiley gone, I still expect a very tough Spartan defense this season.
4. Southern Cal - After another late injury, a few (talented) question marks fill out the Trojan backfield.
5. UConn - Likely the Huskies' best unit.
6. Boston College- Another experienced Eagle group. ND should win anyway.
7. Michigan - I heard these guys worked really hard in the off-season.
8. Navy - A very athletic, experienced Midshipmen group.
9. Stanford - Bo McNally is a proven talent; the converted wide receivers are a question mark.
10. Nevada - These veteran leaders will not allow repeated Notre Dame touchdowns to ruin their day.
11. Washington State - Decent safeties, but two newbies at corner.
12. Washington - Shockingly, they have talent and experience issues